Guru's Golden Picks: Arena Week SIX

[AFLGuru]

Yes, it's week 6... Here's what I've got... sorry I'm a bit behind... internet connection is REALLY slow...

Vegas (-3.5) vs. Austin (4 units -105)

Vegas vs. Austin under 101.5 (3 units -105)

Tampa (-7) vs. Grand Rapids (5 UNITS -105)... STEAL OF THE WEEK... I had the line at 16.5!

Georgia (-5.5) vs. Columbus (4 units -105)

Georgia vs. Columbus under 103 (3 units -105)

 

[AFLGuru]

As usual, the lines go flying. I'm really sorry I didn't get these up here a bit earlier. Pinny opened Tampa at a ludicrous -5.5. Brief write ups...

Tampa (-7) vs. Grand Rapids (5 units -105): Line opened at 5.5, now at 11.5.... still a great bet. Not bailing on this one boys and girls. Tampa comes home pissed after losing a very close game to New Orleans. Yes, Michael Bishop appears to have gotten his act together a bit for the Rampage, but they're still Grand Rapids on the road. The game being in Tampa is worth a solid 4 points alone. Great home field advantage. The implied line here is Tampa +0.5 at Grand Rapids... you're kidding right? Columbus was -5.5 at Grand Rapids. I had this line set at Tampa -16.5, and I think they'll cover this too. Honestly, when the Storm get into a game like this they screw around for awhile and then just pounce at the end. Yes, Tampa has a bunch of injury problems... But there's a few problems they don't have. They still have 3 solid starting receivers, though no depth, and the line is improving as the weeks go by. They had a great great New Orleans team beaten in the Graveyard. Expect tough defense from the Storm and the same lackluster defense by Grand Rapids to have Tampa out-stop the Rampage by 4 or 5 times, leading to a Tampa victory in the 20s.

Las Vegas (-3.5) vs. Austin (4 units -105): Opened at -2.5, now at -7... I still find value in it here, but maybe not as much because of the QB problems. Austin's offense has come through the past few weeks, and though this game is a bit similar to the Georgia game this past week, Las Vegas doesn't have nearly the offense, but a much better defense (and Georgia's a top 5 defense). John Fitzgerald melts under pressure, and he'll probably throw three picks away in this game. There's a chance that Clint Dolezel returns this week, which makes this game a steal. Vegas keeps finding ways to win games, and I don't see this week to be much of an exception.

Georgia (-5.5) vs. Columbus (4 units -105): Once again, opened at -3 and is now -8. Again, still has good value. Columbus just lost to Grand Rapids... let's remember that. Matt D'Orazio isn't that good... I've got much more to say about this game, but I'll get back to it another time. I'll also mention that if Jim Kubiak plays for Georgia, this line jumps another FG.

Georgia vs. Columbus under 103 (3 units -105): Opened at 106.5... unreal... now at 96.5. I had this game set at 89. Georgia's defense is incredible despite the poor showing last week. Columbus isn't scoring 63 like Austin did. Also, this game isn't on the road for Georgia, it's at the friendly confines of home, where they beat New Orleans earlier in the year, holding them to 42 points. Great play down to about 92 or 93, though I still think the game is under that.

Las Vegas vs. Austin under 101.5 (3 units -105): Austin's offense runs into a long road trip and a buzzsaw defense. Vegas has scored 7 points in the 3rd quarter all season, and hasn't broken 50 yet... and they've only allowed San Jose over that point (66).

So there's the opening card. Monitoring a couple other games. I think that this is the week my sides total turns around with some big big plays. More later.

--AFLGuru:toast:

 

[jwblue]

I read this post 9 minutes after it was posted. The lines are already insane.

Tampa -13.5

L.V. -7.5

L.V. Total 96

Georgia -9

Georgia 96.5

Any suggestions?

I should pay you to call me every week to call me as soon as the lines come out!

IS

 

[TOMMYB]

Again You Have Some Nice Bets Here . I Still Can't Believe The Line Movement , There's No Respect For Key Numbers As The Lines Just Sail Right By. There Must Be Alot Of Limit Bets Into These Lines , Do You Know What The Limit Is On The Opening Lines And Does It Change At Sometime During The Week???? Thanks


My Post Will Be Up When I Can Bet Into The Vegas Lines.

 

[AFLGuru]

Just some general notes on the lines this week... Note that home teams are massive favorites now. This is a sign that the cream is going to begin to rise. One of these massive favorites is probably going to lose outright, and one more will probably cover, but aside from that, home teams that are giving lots of points have a tendency to do more covering as the year goes on. I don't like the spot that Chicago's in against Nashville, nor do I like the spots of Arizona, Dallas, or Orlando, particularly my Preds.

I'm still shaking my head at this Tampa line. -5.5? That's what Columbus was this week... I believe that, even at 13, this line is 3.5 points off of my set line, which I still believe Tampa to cover and cover handlely. Unreal... 5.5...

Anyway, that aside, I want to address this Las Vegas game. Clint Dolezel may or may not be back this week once again. He's been questionable for three straight weeks. That being said, Austin is already on their backup QB. Give something to Vegas though. Since the backup QBs have taken over, they played San Jose for a half (and got shut out), New York (which they won), Georgia (got crushed because of a miserable offensive effort), and Nashville, ALL solid defensive ball clubs. So what's the cure for a bad offense? Playing Austin or Grand Rapids! Defense optional. Even Vegas should tick 45 in this game. If the defense does their job, this game won't be close, and it won't be close from the very beginning. John Fitzgerald has been comfortable taking 5 steps and hitting the deep ball. Not this week. Las Vegas leads the AFL in sacks and will surely add to their total this week. Marcus Nash has found a compliment receiver in Joe Douglass, who has all of the makings of a great two-way player in this league (I remember him as a rookie in Orlando... big mouth, but big in the big games). Las Vegas crushed Los Angeles, setting the stage for Colorado to take the spoils. This Vegas team is the best team in the AFL you haven't heard of right now, and they're going to be VERY scary when and Clint Dolezel gets healthy, because Lord knows that Craig Whelihan is terrible.

Anyway, that's all for now... I've gotta catch up with all of the other line movements...

--AFLGuru:toast:

 

[Budworth22]

Tommy, it's 5000

 

[AFLGuru]

Spades: Doing all I can to get the picks here ASAP. But again, it seems as though my account is tabbed, as once I bet, the lines move like crazy.

Tommy, the max on the opening line is a dime, and rises to 3 dimes at game time. For o/u's it's I believe 1000 on the opening line and 2000 on the closing line.

 

[AFLGuru]

I read this post 9 minutes after it was posted. The lines are already insane.

Tampa -13.5

L.V. -7.5

L.V. Total 96

Georgia -9

Georgia 96.5

Any suggestions?

I should pay you to call me every week to call me as soon as the lines come out!

IS

Tampa: I haven't seen 13.5 yet... but even if that's where it was at, it's fine. Tampa should walk away from the number this week handlely.

Eh, all the numbers are really pretty good right now even still. Granted, they're not as good as before, but they're solid. I think this is a huge week... I really do... I wouldn't quite go as hard on these numbers (except Tampa... GREAT play still... and the Georgia under), but these are definitely still playable even here.

 

[AFLGuru]

Couple things about the other games that I didn't touch...

Thanks to the victory over Philly, Dallas is a 3 point favorite at home against New Orleans. This is probably very apt since Dallas has already beaten Chicago and Orlando at home. New Orleans has won 4 straight and needs to keep pace in the South, especially with Georgia hosting Columbus. Orlando gets a much tougher game that is certainly in question, so the logic has to be that this is a game they can really pick up on Orlando, which is key considering the two matches in the season will likely be split. For Dallas, New York is visiting Philly in a game which they are huge Philly fans. A Dallas victory parlayed with a New York defeat puts Dallas a commanding 2 games up in the East and they can begin their playoff plans. I think this line is fair... Regarding the o/u, New Orleans is still shoot-it-out, as is Dallas offensively, but both teams' defenses are improving steadily. I could see this game being in the 70s and in the 120s... Nothing would surprise me.

I've spoken enough about this Orlando/San Jose game... It's a bad spot for Orlando, especially with me in attendance... But that being said, Orlando knows they can bury San Jose for awhile if they win the game, which is a huge motivating factor. Still no one to return the ball off the nets though after cutting McGriff. O/u is probably going to lean over, but I can't bet over in an Orlando game.

New York and Philly is a dangerous looking game. New York's defense isn't too shabby, and Philly proved what can happen when they go up against a pretty good defense. But New York is a very soft team having played nothing but mediocre teams. This is just another mediocre bump in the road for New York though... Spread and o/u are probably about right, as it appears as though Aaron Garcia is finally getting things going.

Nashville is in a similar spot to Austin last week, trying to play spoiler on a vulnerable team (Georgia became vulnerable in the 2nd quarter after Kubiak went down). This Chicago team doesn't look very impressive right now, and are setting themselves up for either a smashing victory where they just destroy Nashville, or in a spot where Nashville could do to them what they should have done to Philly... play ugly football and take the game down to the wire. I like Nashville's spot here, but the team has shown no signs of actually being able to pull out a game down the stretch yet. If I had to take something in the game, it'd be under, though once again, Nashville is going to play an over game at some point against a team that is relatively defensive. Tony Zimmerman might have also won himself the starting job last week by playing pretty well against a stout Vegas D.

This LA/Ari game is a tale of two completely opposite teams. One stepped in crap through 5 games to be the division leader. The other hasn't been able to get it together yet. Todd Shell is a solid head coach, and it's a matter of time before that offense gets going under Bonner. The defense has looked impressive and might be able to quell the LA offense... Interesting proposition, but a game I've forced myself to not touch.

 

[degenerategambler]

When Pinny posted the lines, they started moving right away. That was before AFLG, even posted. They moved a lot quicker once he did. Others must have seen some value today as well. Very interesting line movement to say the least.

 

[AFLGuru]

The time between my bet and my post is going to be several minutes, especially when my internet connection is so crappy too... But the lines do start moving near immediately, especially when the implied line says that Tampa is only 2.5 points better than Grand Rapids... lol.

 

[Two-Niner]

Hey Guru, do you have any opinion on NO/Dallas total of 106. I was looking at maybe playing the over considering the Voodoo offense and your talk about Dallas D playing a little above their head but 106 was a little higher than I expected. Any value there?

 

[AFLGuru]

Two-Niner: It's the exact number I had tabbed for the game... If I had to choose, I'd lean under because New Orleans' defense has begun to show up, but the two offenses are too highpowered for a number any lower than this. We could very easily see a repeat 66-65 game from Dallas week 1.

 

[Two-Niner]

Thanks. I went ahead and played that Chicago/Nashville under you mentioned above when it was a little higher. Another question I wanted to ask you.. When teams are in "look ahead" games have you noticed if they are more likely to slack on offense or defense, or you just never know?

 

[AFLGuru]

A fair question...

There are a couple tiers of teams in the AFL. You have the teams that are the elite. These are the well-coached teams who don't get caught up in trap games often, particularly at home. These teams are resilient enough to take to the pressure of a game that they really should win. That being said, these teams still sometimes get trapped on the road at times. Orlando, Tampa, and New Orleans are the only teams that fit that billing thus far this year, with Georgia peeking closer, and will be in after this week if they crush Columbus.

The 2nd tier includes the teams that WILL get trapped often. Chicago and New York and San Jose are PERFECT examples of this. These teams are the hunted teams whether it be from previous seasons or current standings, and are usually poorly coached. They don't get up for the real easy games, but have the talent to beat the teams in the tier above them. These teams are usually dangerous in the postseason when there are no look ahead games. But the problem is that they oft-times get left outside of the playoffs, like last year's New York team (now the coach is coaching Arizona.... similarities?).

The third tier basically consists of Columbus, Grand Rapids and Austin. These teams simply suck and have no direction whatsoever. This list will include Nashville after another loss, and Philly after a couple more losses. They just play spoiler. They usually attract decent crowds to games that can influence a game, and they take advantage of the 2nd tier of teams and every now and then, the top tier.

When the 2nd level teams quit, it's never really anything consistent. Dallas quit on Columbus offensively, but not defensively. New York quit on Las Vegas offensively, but not defensively. Chicago quit on Columbus offensively AND defensively. Georgia's special teams quit in the LA game. So you never really know. It's usually pretty random. But it's pretty inevitable sometimes. When these 2nd tier teams play the lower tier teams away from home, bad things usually happen. Austin covered Georgia and played LA really tough, Columbus covered Austin and beat Chicago. Grand Rapids sucks... but they beat Columbus, who at the time was posing as a 2nd tier team due to their superiority over Grand Rapids.

I know this isn't a really good answer to your question, but it's the best I've got at the current moment. Teams quit, that's inevitable. How they quit though, I've found no consistently in betting.

--AFLGuru:toast:

 

[AFLGuru]

As posted in Olddog's thread... This will help sum up my arguments for the 3 games ATS.

Though the AFL preaches "parody," the bottom 4 teams in the AFL really are a step below the rest, especially on the road. Check out the games from this year and years past with these really bad teams away from home... some of the real ugly games from this year and last year...

Grand Rapids
Colorado 72 - Grand Rapids 56
Columbus 59 - Grand Rapids 28
Colorado 69 - Grand Rapids 30
San Jose 62 - Grand Rapids 31
Chicago 50 - Grand Rapids 30

Rampage are 7-13 ATS their last 20 and 4-5 ATS in their last 9 road games. Though not too shabby ATS on the road, two covers were against now defunct Detroit, one of which was on the 2nd to last game of the season in a meaningless game for both teams. They also covered now defunct Indiana, another non-playoff contending team. They covered Dallas last year, but the spread was 20... another non-playoff team. Also of note is that they were a 27 point dog to San Jose... and didn't cover... This makes the Rampage 0-4 ATS against the playoff teams from last year and 0-1 against probable playoff teams this year.

Austin
Tampa 62 - Austin 45
New Orleans 38 - Austin 21
Georgia 51 - Austin 34
LA 81 - Austin 70

Austin surprised some teams out of the gate last year on the road, including Orlando in a game that absolutely shocked the Preds. But as the season wore on... less impressive. Austin is 7-12-1 ATS in their last 20 and 3-6 ATS on the road in their last 9. Their covers in that stretch? Grand Rapids this year for starters... Grand Rapids last year... and Detroit... again, now defunct. 0-5 against last year's contenders ATS away and 0-1 this year.

Columbus
We won't mention they just lost by 9 to Grand Rapids away...
Las Vegas 64 - Columbus 51
New Orleans 64 - Columbus 46
New York 62 - Columbus 41
Arizona 65 - Columbus 42
Philly 56 - Columbus 34

Columbus hasn't been the worst of cover teams lately... 10-10 in their last 20. On the road though? 4-6 ATS. Let's check who the covers were against. Dallas this year was an impressive cover. I'll give them that. Dallas last year though? Not impressive at all. They covered Indiana. And they covered Detroit last year for shits and giggles.

If this proves anything, it's that these teams don't even come close to covering these numbers against good teams, of which Vegas, Tampa, and Georgia all are. They aren't necessarily Arena Bowl teams, but they're all going to be right there in the playoff chase come year's end, and they should all take care of business, even by these numbers, this week. Maybe this is the week that the stat changes... but I just don't see it happening.

Tampa has played Grand Rapids 5 times in their history. Though each year is different, all of the Tampa teams have been good, and the Grand Rapids teams excluding '01 when they won the Arena Bowl were all pretty bad, particularly the past 2 seasons. Tampa is 4-1 SU and 3-2 ATS in these 5 games, with the last three ATS going to Tampa.

These other two games don't have the comparison, though Columbus and Austin have both been bad in their histories, Vegas and Georgia haven't always been anything to write home about.

Just consider these things. The odds from history are massively stacked against the big dog road teams this week (the exception possibly being Nashville, as I don't know whether to classify Chicago as a contender or pretender yet). I know it's all a new season and all of that... but Tampa's coming off of a loss going into a tough stretch of games, and Georgia is off of a close game with a tough stretch for them. Same true for Vegas, though their path here has been a bit easier than the rest. The point is that these teams need to bank wins now and will take no chances in their games. Though I can see these teams "backdoor"ing us, the odds are all in our favors.

Hope this helps. I'll post a copy of this in my thread as well.

--AFLGuru:toast:

 

[AFLGuru]

Moral of the story to sum this up: Crappy teams suck on the road against good teams (0-17 ATS over the past 2 seasons).

Until the books have the balls to set these lines at over 14, and in some cases as many as 20 (considering GR was a 27 point dog once last year), it's all good. Keep going with them. Break the books while you can.

And Tommy, "key" numbers in the AFL, though they exist, aren't nearly as important as in the NFL or college due to the higher scoring nature and percentage of missed PATs... thought I should throw that in there.

--AFLGuru

 

[Rosey]

I was wondering if it was at all possible to get the opening lines Pinny offered up before the gargantuan line moves. Any help would be most appreciated. I'm very curious in keeping track of these moves over the next few weeks. That's if Pinny continues to release these ridiculous lines so early the 2nd quarter of the season....THX

 

[Two-Niner]

Good info Guru. The coaching differences make alot of since.

Speaking of key numbers in the AFL. If you will notice, Pinnacle charges you 16 cents to buy off a 7 but only 12 cents to buy off a 3.

 

[AFLGuru]

More incredible ATS stats

Note about Austin in the extremely long post: They are actually 4-6 in their last 10 ATS, but I omitted the least recent of games, being @ Detroit in '04. So there's truth in they're 3-6 ATS, but I mentioned Detroit on there, which is true, but isn't in the stats. Figured it was worth mention.

Okay, so I did some searching the past couple hours... I don't have a database that lets me look up the now-defunct teams, so these stats are incomplete, but they are worthwhile. If you take the teams that are the worst in the AFL and compare them to the teams better than them when they play on the road, here are your results...

'05 (Grand Rapids, Columbus, Nashville, Austin): 1-3 ATS
'04 (GR, Phi, Columbus, Dal): 5-11 ATS
'03 (Colorado, Columbus): 5-8 ATS
'02 (Georgia, TB, and NY): 4-5 ATS

Granted, the farther we go back, the shadier the records get. I've emailed one of the database sites to see if they can replace the blank names with actual team names... this will help me out A TON in tracking this stat. But the '04 stats are pretty telling. Overall since '02, the worst teams in the AFL (note: that are trackable) are 15-27 ATS, or roughly 36% ATS at a playoff-caliber team. I'll take my chances on these numbers ALL the time. Again, if I can get some updated information and can find these databases, I'll finish up the experiment and get the final number. The fact of the matter remains the same... The bad bad teams can't play on the road. 5-11 ATS last year amongst 4 teams is pretty sour. These stats are proven and are completely accurate, as are obviously the 1-3 marks this year, to make even the most certain of stats 6-14 ATS (30% ATS).

So don't be afraid! Lay the chalk with confidence! There's no doubt that these 3 teams are going nowhere fast or that Tampa, Vegas, and Georgia are at least going to compete for playoff births. Follow the trends and we'll probably all be cashing in this week. My next experiment, likely to be done Thursday or so is to find out what these teams are when they're getting over a TD to start. I'll bet the numbers are even more astounding.

But for now, it's off to bed... Midterm at 8:00 AM tomorrow... Probably shouldn't have taken the time to do this in the first place... but it gave me a reason to procrastinate even longer. Thanks guys!

--AFLGuru:toast: